Lessons Learned From Previous NFL Drafts
NFL teams can routinely expect WR to be the deepest position in the NFL Draft. Before watching the tape, and nailing down my top 10 WR in the 2021 NFL Draft, I took some time to reflect. I’ve learned some lessons throughout past drafts regarding what WR draft prospects are hitting and which ones aren’t. Good initial burst off the snap, slippery working around traffic, and strong ability to redirect in space are commonalities I see in guys who are thriving.
Additionally, god-given, unicornish gifts shouldn’t be overlooked. Seattle Seahawks WR, DK. Metcalf taught me the same lesson Bill QB, Josh Allen did. Simply stated, if a guy has generational size and gifts at a given position, combined with work ethic and desire, you draft that guy on day 1. Metcalf was criticized for lack of route-running savvy and Allen for his accuracy. Both guys still have issues in this area. However, their gifts and desire to succeed minimize how much we notice that.
Almost all of the guys finding success are tremendously skilled in the first 5 yards in regards to how they release and hand-battle against opposing DBs. WRs, who are undersized with minimal play strength are more often used now as gadget players.
Looking at the Top 10 WRs in the 2021 NFL Draft
Looking at the NFL Draft top 10 WRs, I considered what these guys can contribute out of the gate combined with what they can turn into long-term. This is another NFL Draft where we will see an enormous amount of WRs get selected in the first 2 rounds. Yes, teams have many choices, but with most deep WR classes, teams will be looking to find puzzle pieces to help shape or complete their offense. It’s largely because of that (and system fit) why WR is a position we see significant discrepancy from one team’s draft board compared to another’s.
1. Jaylen Waddle, Alabama:
Why is Jaylen Waddle the best WR in the 2021 NFL Draft?
Waddle has a combination of straight line speed , change of direction, movement skills, and burst unlike anything I have seen in recent years. I did say I value size, but I value tape more. Considering the sheer depth and talent of the last few draft classes, that is a bold (but true) statement. Here’s an example of that. On one play, Waddle ran a blaze out route, which means he runs his route to middle of field, slams on breaks, and explodes towards sideline.
That one play summarized what makes Waddle so special for me; I can’t think of 5 offensive players in the NFL who more effective in HOW they use their speed. Nobody in this class gets nearly the amount of vertical separation he gets. When he steps on the gas, it’s thrilling to watch. He really can line up anywhere, and as much as I love many things about Devonta Smith’s game, Waddle is better suited to line up all over as an X, Z, or slot. Combine the instant impact on special teams, he’s the guy I draft first in this class if my goal is to get the best possible weapon.
My biggest concern(s):
Too many body catches, and I think there’s a remote change the injury bug could stick with him in the NFL more than a team might want.
2. Jamar Chase, LSU:
Why is Jamar Chase the 2nd best WR in the 2021 NFL Draft?
If not for Waddle’s out-of-this world athleticism, Chase would be my #1 WR. If you watch them both get in and out of their breaks, you’ll see another reason why Waddle is ranked higher as well. Still, despite being #2 Chase is a supreme talent. There’s a valid argument for Jamar Chase as the best WR in this class. When choosing between these top 2, it has to be about fit. They are both unique talents and win in different ways. Jamar Chase has an extremely high floor because he does so many things at a high level that will translate to an NFL field. Within the first 5 yards, he consistently wins physical battles and has absurd play strength in all areas.
He does a better job of stemming routes than any other WR I can remember watching come out. In other words, he knows how to manipulate DBs into poor positioning so he can make a play on the ball. When the ball comes his way, his body control and natural tracking ability are world-class. He shows an impressive burst of speed when he needs to separate from opponents. Elite timing and focus shows up non-stop when he needs to make a play on the ball.
My biggest concern(s):
May have trouble separating over the top against faster CBs (see vs C.J. Henderson tape) and could be smoother in and out of his breaks in some instances.
3. Devonta Smith, Alabama
Why is Devonta Smith the 3rd best WR in the 2021 NFL Draft?
Smith is the best route-runner in this class, hands down. But it’s not just his route running ability. It’s his route running savvy. A good example that was a fake corner go route against Mississippi State. The way he used his hips, decelerated, and used his eyes to make the corner bite on the route was a play that summarized why he is so savvy. Equally impressive is his ability to adjust his body and track the ball while running at full speed. The overall timing of his breaks are about as perfect as you can ask for. One of the most impressive aspects of his game is his huge arsenal of different ways to release on DB lined up across from him.
We see elite CBs try to plan him in man, off-man, and press. In all instances, we are seeing CBs are having a tough time getting hands on him when he’s releasing. While is is on the completely opposite side of the the ball, think about Brian Burns. Burns, an edge defender for the Panthers was similar in this respect coming out of Florida State. On the college tape, both Burns and Smith were so slippery you can’t get hands on them, so their lack of play strength becomes somewhat of a non-issue.
If you are that good at the snap, you can win like that in the NFL. And Burns is a nightmare on Sundays for that exact reason. It’s going to be interesting to see how proficient Smith will continue to be in releasing at the line without getting touched. I don’t think he would have won the Heisman if Waddle doesn’t get hurt. Still, don’t be surprised if he ends up being the best WR in this class. His physical stature (thinner frame) and play strength is the most glaring reason for me to rank him one spot below Chase.
My biggest concern(s):
IF a CB is able to effectively get hands on him in man coverage, his play strength and frame could be problematic. He could be a liability as a run blocker due to his size.
4. Terrace Marshall, LSU:
Why is Terrace Marshall the 4th best WR in the 2021 NFL Draft?
I know some people might expect Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore, or Kadarius Toney to be sitting in this spot, but I feel differently and I’ll tell you why. think Marshall is being undervalued because he’s viewed as “the other guy,” playing alongside Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase. Toney has a serious issue with drops, and despite moving well, needs quite a bit of development.
Marshall is, in my opinion, a better athlete than Bateman. Also, I think both Toney and Moore can likely turn into gadget-players. Terrace Marshall checks all the boxes; route running, highpoints the ball well, size, hands, play strength, red-zone threat, physicality, and is tough to deal with after the catch. There are plenty more good things I didn’t even mention there.
My biggest concern(s):
He’s a good athlete, but certainly, there are more athletic guys in this class. The main issue are the dropped passes. I do think this can be cleaned up. He needs to can focus on hauling in the catch before taking off and running with the football. This is an issue of trying to move too quickly, and hopefully, that improves throughout his NFL career
5. Rashod Bateman, Minnesota:
Why is Rashod Bateman the 5th best WR in the 2021 NFL Draft?
Bateman is one of the best route-runners in this class. He just flat-out knows how to get open and make contested catches. Like Devonta Smith and Jamar Chase, Bateman is incredibly savvy and understands the position’s little nuances. Similar to those two players, Bateman tracks the ball very well. Like Smith, he has a variety of ways to release on you at the line. And similar to Chase, Bateman does a tremendous job at the top of his routes. No, he’s not among the best athletes in this class, but he has fast off the line. Let’s not forget, his stats were worse due to QB play. Overall, there is a lot he does well. Even at #5, I won’t be surprised if he has significant success. Remember, WR is a deep position as always.
My biggest concern(s): He’s in the bottom half of athletic ability (not an insult btw) on this list of top 10 WRs in the 2021 NFL Draft
Stay tuned for part 2, “The Top 10 WRs in the 2021 NFL Draft (6-10).” For additional details on these prospects and others, check out my colleague and Sr. Analyst and Scout, Austin Smith’s Top 100 Big Board.
